Since September 2013，China’s economic growth has begun to enter a new growth cycle fluctuation of slow decline. But the cycle round valley has notyet been seenby the end of 2015. It shows a overall posture of long declining and low running. On the basis of Long/Short Leading Composite Index（diffusion index）in the current round of climate fluctuation and the analysis of the economic data in 2015，this paper forecast that the bottom of China’s economic fluctuations will occur in the first quarter of 2016，and the fallingtrend will stop from the second quarter，after thatChina’s economy will rise slightly. Given the current economy growth is transforming from high speed to medium speed，the leading force of pulling economic recovery has not yet formed the scale，and the economic downward pressure is still large. Therefore，the full-year GDP growth in 2016is expected to reach 6.8%，and CPI is expected to rise about 2%，and PPI will still keep negative growth. ToProvide long-term motivation for economic recovery in 2016，the government need to integrate policies，focus on the supply side，attach great importance to the demand side.