2015年以原油为主的国际大宗商品价格持续暴跌对非洲经济产生较大影响,非洲国内生产总值年均增长率降至近年低点,且增长业绩在国与国之间分化明显。大宗商品价格走低还导致非洲出口收入锐减,外汇储备缩水,货币大幅贬值,财政赤字和经常项目赤字进一步扩大,通胀率上升。2016年非洲经济增速将进一步下降,2017年有望缓慢回升,主要下行风险和不确定因素包括:战乱和冲突,伊斯兰极端势力的扩散,社会治安状况恶化,公共卫生突发事件,以及国际大宗商品价格走势,新兴市场国家经济形势和美国加息进程。
<<The continuous decline of oil-led commodity prices in 2015 has made greater impact on Africa’s economic situation,leading to the lowest GDP growth rate in the continent in recent years,with varying growth performance from country to country. The commodity price crash also caused sharp reduction in export earnings and foreign reserves,big depreciation of local currencies,widening of fiscal deficit and current account deficit,and an increase of consumer prices in most African countries.The Africa’s GDP growth rate is likely to slow down further in 2016 and bounce back from 2017,and the main downside risks and uncertainties include wars and conflicts,expanding of Islamic extremist forces,worsening of public order situation,sudden outbreak of emergent public health events in the continent,as well as price trend of the commodities,the economic situations in emerging market economies,and the interest rate rise process in the United States.
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