明确中国公共安全与应急管理的态势,科学预测其发展规律,是我国应急管理理论和实践工作者面临的现实问题和前沿问题。本文综合运用调查研究、统计分析、文献综合、系统集成等方法,从实践、科研项目以及理论研究等多个层面分析我国公共安全与应急管理的态势,发现我国公共安全与应急管理理论和实践都取得很大进展,但是公共安全与应急管理体系的顶层设计较为缺乏、化危为机和危机转化管理的辩证思维鲜见、计算实验等科学方法研究不够深入。在此基础上,本文对这些关键问题进行了预测和设计。
<<The current pending practical and frontier issue in the emergency management academic and practical field in China is to signify the situation in the public security and emergency management and predict the development rules scientifically. Coordinating investigation with statistical analysis,comprehensive literature,and system integration approaches,the article analyzes the situation in public security and emergency management in China,from the aspects of practice,research projects and theoretical research,and concludes great progress has been made in the theories and practices in the public security and emergency management in China. However,there are still several deficiencies existing,such as lack of top-level design in the public security and emergency management system;the dialectical thinking of transforming crisis into opportunity and crisis transformation management seldom being found;the insufficient research on scientific approaches such as computational experiment. Based on the preceding analysis,such critical issues have been predicted and designed.
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