2015年,香港经济仍延续低增长和“内热外冷”的总体走势,外部需求较预期疲弱,经济面临更大压力;内部需求表现超出预期,成为支撑经济增长的主力。2016年,香港经济将面对几个极为重要的影响因素:本地贸易进入新常态,对外部需求将产生深刻影响;美国利率趋升导致香港资产市场向下调整,将削弱内部需求增长动力;来港游客正在出现结构性变化,将持续影响香港服务输出;等等。预计2016年GDP增长率将为2%左右。未来应尽快修正制度缺失,释放经济发展潜力,推动香港朝着知识经济和全面改善民生的方向发展,努力提升经济增长水平。
<<Hong Kong’s economy continued low growth in 2015 and the overall heated internal market which didn’t meet a weak external demand puts big pressure on the overall economic outlook;the internal demand performance was higher than expected and became the leading factor in support of economic growth. This year,Hong Kong’s economy will face a few very important factors,including bringing local trade into a new normal which will have a profound impact on external demand;Upward trending US interest rates will lead to a Hong Kong’s asset market downward adjustment which in turn will weaken the growth of internal demand;A structural change of Hong Kong tourists is taking place which will continue to affect Hong Kong’s service export etc,and so Hong Kong’s annual GDP growth rate is expected to be only about 2%. In the future,some losing system should be revised as soon as possible in order to release the economic potential and to promote Hong Kong towards the development of a knowledge economy,to comprehensively improve the people’s livelihood and increase the efforts to enhance the level of economic growth.
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