此次美国大选实际上是“建制派”与“圈外人”的博弈,政党分野已不再重要。桑德斯掀起的强劲“旋风”,几乎颠覆尚处于执政地位的民主党的政策导向和奥巴马大部分政治遗产,而特朗普的“异类”观点和轻松胜出更是让共和党阵脚大乱、进退失据、前景堪忧。之所以民粹主义、本土主义议题主导了此次大选,既有美国国内因素,还有国际大环境和潮流的影响,而且二者彼此强化。“政治正确”原则所导致的贫富分化、金融巨头、移民等问题和以英国脱欧为代表的欧洲民粹主义构成了此次美国大选民粹主义突起的影响因素。新一任美国总统的政策导向必定或多或少地带有此次大选中的民粹主义烙印。但是,选举中一切以选票为核心,选后的决策则会受到种种限制,因此对选举议题对选后美国内外政策的影响不应高估。
<<The US presidential election is actually a game of “insiders” and “outsiders.” The policy differences between the political parties are no longer important. Bernie Sanders’ “storm” overturned most of the policy orientation of the Democratic Party as well as possibly the legacy of President Obama. Trump’s jumbled points of view and easy win put the Republicans in an extremely difficult position. The reasons why issues of populism and nativism have become dominant in the election can be related to both domestic and international factors. The problems caused by “political correctness”,the departure of the UK from the EU,and populist trends in the EU countries form the background to this election. The policy direction of the new president of the United States will more or less be affected by the populist atmosphere of the election. However,after the core focus of the actual election,post-election policy-making should become more reasonable and limited by many factors. Hence,we should not overestimate the impact of these hot issues in the election.
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