本年度南海问题的关注点和各国处理南海争端的重心主要集中在中菲南海仲裁结果。短期内,仲裁结果恐对中国负责任大国的国家形象造成一定负面影响,但从长期来看,激进的仲裁结果并无执行力,对中国南海利益的维护影响不大。中美两国对南海海洋秩序的博弈仍将是主导南海问题的热点,东盟国家在南海问题上依然存在严重分歧,东盟声索国对仲裁案的态度也较为低调。未来中国在南海问题应对方面的着眼点是海洋秩序的变迁和南海议题的话语权,并推动与东盟国家的海洋合作,减少战略猜疑和误判。
<<This year’s debates and discussions on the South China Sea(SCS)were focused on July 12—the day the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA)announced the much-awaited verdict in the case of the SCS. In the short run,the verdict may undermine China’s international image as a responsible great power;yet in the long run,in light of the limitations on compulsory arbitration settlements,it is unlikely that the case will affect China’s national interests in the SCS. In the future,the Sino-US great-power struggle regarding the maritime order will dominate the agenda. Although ASEAN still cannot reach one voice on this issue,the ASEAN claimants have remained relatively quiet about the verdict. The key to these disputes are changes in the maritime order and the setting of the agenda for the SCS. In response to the situation,it is necessary for China to promote maritime cooperation with ASEAN and to reduce strategic distrust and misunderstandings.
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