在过去的一年中,个人消费支出对美国经济增长的拉动作用在逐渐下降,私人国内投资的减速也暗示着企业对未来经济形势的不乐观预期。在全球经济增长形势严峻,政府债务负担沉重的情况下,净出口和政府支出也难于有效地拉动经济增长。虽然各项经济基本面指标的绝对水平还比较乐观,但是失业率的下降和企业盈利水平的提高都出现了疲态,劳动市场持续改善的步伐放慢、消费信心指数在达到高位后回撤,这些都使得未来美国经济增长难言乐观。考虑到外部经济形势给美国经济增长带来的不确定性,美联储在加息问题上也放慢了节奏。预计2016年美国的经济增长低于2015年的水平,并且在2017年也不会出现根本性好转。
<<The contribution of personal consumption expenditure to U.S. economic growth decreased and the slowdown of the gross private domestic investment indicate that enterprises became less optimistic to the future in the past year. Net export and government expenditure are also promote grow effectively against the background of the subdued pace of foreign economic growth and huge public debt burden. Even through fundamental economic indexes still in good shape,future growth expectation held down by the flattened unemployment rate,the slowed pace of improvement of labor market condition,the fell back of consumer confidence index after it reach its peak,and remained relative stable of longer-run inflation expectation. The uncertainty of the economic growth warrant only gradual future increase in the federal funds rate. It is expected that the U.S. economy will grow at a slower pace in 2016 and 2017.
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