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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    未来30年中国国际贸易发展趋势与特点

    摘要

    未来30年中国国际贸易发展趋势突出表现在以下几个方面:一是我国参与国际贸易的总体战略,将加快实现从贸易大国向贸易强国的转型;二是我国外贸发展方式,将从粗放型贸易发展方式向集约型贸易发展方式转型;三是我国外贸参与国际竞争的优势,将实现从出口导向型向竞争优势导向型转型;四是我国参与贸易的商品结构,将从以货物贸易为主向注重提高服务贸易比重转型;五是我国出口产品结构层次,将从以低端要素集成品向高端要素集成品转型;六是我国国际贸易的地理方向,将实现从以发达国家市场为主到多元化市场空间结构转变。对此,应该组织专门力量系统研究我国对外贸易和开放战略的调整和转型问题,持续跟踪研究新形势下我国对外贸易和开放中出现的新情况、新问题和新特点,确定我国对外贸易和开放战略调整和转型的目标模式、思路和重点,制定新的配套政策体系,以适应我国参与国际竞争的动态需要。

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    Abstract

    The trend of international trade for the next 30 years is mainly showed in the following aspects:first,the overall strategy of China’s participation in international trade will accelerate its transformation from a big power of international trade to a strong one;second,the mode of China’s foreign trade will transform from an extensive one to an intensive one;thirdly,China’s advantage of participation in international competition will transform from export-oriented type to competitive edge-oriented type;fourthly,China’s commodity structure of participation in foreign trade will transform from giving priority to trade of goods to laying stress on increasing the proportion of service trade;fifthly,export product mix will transform from low-factor integrated product to high-factor integrated product;sixthly,the geographic orientation of China’s international trade will transform from focusing on developed countries to a multi-layer market space. Therefore,we should organize specialized strength to make a systematic study on the adjustment and transformation of China’s foreign trade and opening strategy,persistently follow and research the newly emerging situations,problems and characteristics of China’s foreign trade and opening drive,determine the objective model,train of thought and emphasis on the adjustment and transformation of the strategy of China’s foreign trade and opening drive,and formulate a new supporting policy system,so as to meet the changeful demand for China’s participation in international competition.

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    Keywords:
    作者简介
    陈文玲:陈文玲,中国国际经济交流中心总经济师。
    颜少君:
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