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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    上海弹性城市发展评价及推进策略研究(2006~2015)

    摘要

    上海滨江临海,自然环境存在脆弱性,近年来全球气候变化及其产生的极端天气给上海城市安全带来很大威胁。弹性城市对自然环境灾害的冲击具有承担、恢复和预防功能,成为城市地区发展的热点。从社会弹性、经济弹性、生态弹性、城市基础设施和城市治理五个评价领域构建弹性城市评价指标体系,并对上海进行实证分析,结果表明,上海市近10年来城市弹性指数总体上表现出上升趋势,经济弹性和城市基础设施表现较好;生态弹性在所有评价领域中得分最低,反映了不断扩大的城市规模对自然生态环境产生强烈干扰,削弱了城市自然生态系统的调蓄能力。在高强度城市化背景下,上海自然生态系统的调节能力变弱,城市排水设施难以满足发展需要,高密度城区弹性化改造更新难度大,弹性城市建设也面临着技术支撑不足等挑战。未来上海城市弹性能力的提升,需要构建弹性城市建设的制度保障体系,建设分布式城市弹性设施,研发弹性城市建设的智能分析技术,注重推动全社会共同参与,并加强长三角区域弹性城市建设的协同发展。

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    Abstract

    Shanghai is closing to the Yangtze River and East China Sea,and urban natural ecosystems are fragile,in recent years,global climate change and its extreme weather brought a great threat to the urban security. Resilient cities have the capacity to undertake,recover and prevent natural disasters,so resilient city has become a hotspot in the development of urban areas. This paper constructed a evaluation system of resilient cities from the five areas of social resilience,economic resilience,ecological resilience,urban infrastructure and urban governance. The results show that the city resilience index of Shanghai has shown an upward trend in recent 10 years,the economic resilience and urban infrastructure performance have better performance,the ecological resilience has the lowest score in all evaluation fields,which reflects that the expanding urban scale has a strong impact on the urban natural ecological environment,weakened the storage capacity of city natural ecosystem. In the context of high-intensity urbanization,the regulation capacity of Shanghai’s natural ecological system become weak,urban drainage facilities are difficult to meet the development needs,and resilience renovation is difficult in high-density urban,resilient city is also facing technical challenges. In the future,the resilience of Shanghai need to be improved depends on the following points:Construction of institutional system of resilient city development,construction of distributed urban resilience facilities,developing the intelligent analysis technology of the resilient city,promoting the social participation,strengthening the coordinated development of the resilient city in the Yangtze River Delta.

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    作者简介
    程进:程进,上海社会科学院生态与可持续发展研究所,博士,研究方向为环境绩效评价、低碳绿色发展等。
    周冯琦:周冯琦,上海社会科学院生态与可持续发展研究所常务副所长,研究员,研究方向为低碳绿色经济、环境经济政策等。
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