流动人口规模经历了30年的高速增长,随着我国社会经济发展方式的转型,流动人口会有哪些新特征和新趋势?本文利用历年普查数据和流动人口动态监测数据分析我国人口流动结构、模式的转型和空间分布的调整,发现:流动人口规模增长减缓,进入“低速”通道,人口、经济和政策的变动带来更多不确定性;流动人口结构出现素质结构的优化、年龄结构的老化和群体的分化;人口流动模式转变,“扩展家庭”的出现推动流动人口家庭化趋势加深,高端流动人口快速增长,城城流动人口开始活跃;流动人口空间分布出现“多元化”趋势,不仅东部地区的大都市圈、沿海城市带形成,中西部城市群也将成为新的流动人口增长极。
<<The past thirty years have witnessed rapid growth in internal migration in China. With the transformation in social and economic development mode in China,what are the new characteristics and trends of internal migration?The essay uses census data and dynamic population monitoring data to analyze the transition of size,structure and spatial distribution of China’s migrant population. The essay has several findings. The growth of migrant population has slowed down and entered a “slow lane.” Changes in population,economies and policies have brought more uncertainty. The structure of migration population has undergone the improvements in quality structure,ageing in age structure and differentiation among groups. The mode of migration has changed,and the appearance of “extended family” has led to the increase in family migration,highly skilled migrants and urban-urban migrants. The spatial distribution of migrant population has been diversified. Metropolitan region and coastal megalopolis in eastern regions have formed and the urban agglomeration in middle and western regions will become the new center of migration.
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