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基于1995～2015年的增长，本报告以扩大人民群众文教消费需求和促进城乡、区域共享为目标，检测了2015年全国城乡文教消费需求总量应有空间：供需协调性测算为26269。34亿元，消除负相关测算为34995。68亿元，最佳比例值测算为41097。96亿元，最小城乡比测算为41097。96亿元，弥合城乡比测算为56833。23亿元，城乡无差距测算为85611。17亿元，地区无差距测算为110791。89亿元，实际总量仅为24036。45亿元。全国城乡文教消费需求相关方面的增长差距一目了然：一方面表现为经济增长与基本民生、文化民生增进的协调性差距；另一方面表现为城乡之间、地区之间民生与文化民生增进的均衡性差距。在以上分析的基础上，测算了2020年全国文教消费总量增长空间：历年均增值目标为43540。34亿元；供需协调性目标为59027。34亿元；消除负相关目标为68354。93亿元；最佳比例值目标为73323。78亿元；最小城乡比目标为72512。43亿元；弥合城乡比目标为93733。27亿元；城乡无差距目标为152740。77亿元；地区无差距目标为197109。26亿元。
<<Based upon the growth from 1995 to 2015，and aiming at the target of extended demotic cultural consumption demand and advanced sharing between urban and rural areas，and among various regions，measuring to the “due space” of the countrywide total cultural consumption demand in urban and rural areas in 2015 are as follows：2626.934 billion yuan in the valued coordinated supply-demand；3499.568 billion yuan in the valued avoiding negative correlation；4109.796 billion yuan in the valued optimal proportion；4109.796 billion yuan in the valued lowest urban-rural ratio；5683.323 billion yuan in the valued closed urban-rural ratio；8561.117 billion yuan in the valued without urban-rural gap，11079.189 billion yuan in the valued without regional gap. But the actual gross is only 2403.645 billion yuan. It is clear at a glance which the growth distance with regard to countrywide cultural consumption demand in urban and rural areas had two dimensions：on the one hand，that consist in the harmonious difference of economic increase and basic people’s livelihood and cultural people’s livelihood enhancement；on the other hand，that consist in the statuesque difference of people’s livelihood and cultural people’s livelihood enhancement between urban and rural areas，and among various regions. Based upon the above analysis，the total growth space of countrywide cultural consumption to 2020 are estimated as follows：4354.034 billion yuan in the of average added value over the years；5902.734 billion yuan in the growth target of coordinated supply-demand；6835.493 billion yuan in the growth target of avoiding negative correlation；7332.378 billion yuan in the growth target of optimal proportion；7251.243 billion yuan in the growth target of lowest urban-rural ratio；9373.327 billion yuan in the growth target of closed urban-rural ratio；15274.077 billion yuan in the growth target of without urban-rural gap；19710.926 billion yuan in the growth target of without regional gap.
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