Low carbon economic development model,featured by low energy consumption,low pollution,low carbon emission,is another new way towards ecological civilization following agricultural and industrial civilization.China has made the commitment that China's unit GDP's carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by 40~45% by 2020 compared with the level of 2005.To Shanxi,a traditional high carbon province,how to deal with the challenges in the 12th Five-year Plan and beyond that period becomes a major task under this pressure.Based on the current situation on Shanxi's carbon emissions,this paper predicts Shanxi's carbon emissions and carbon intensity index by using ARMA(p,q)Model during the period of the 12th Five-year Plan,which shows that Shanxi will meet emission reduction targets by the end of 12th Five-year plan,but the absolute volume will be on the rise. <<