构建SVAR模型从货币政策效果看日本泡沫经济问题,结果显示:导致日本泡沫经济的原因之一是货币政策传导机制不畅,政策效果未符合预期。对于20世纪80年代日本为应对日元升值而施行的宽松货币政策来说,汇率传导机制受阻,间接推高了资产价格。资产价格传导机制受阻没有带动投资及产出的相应增长,还引发了泡沫经济的生成、膨胀。实证结果也一定程度上验证了过剩资金流入资产市场更多是基于投机目的而非投资目的。日本政府试图通过紧缩货币政策解决资产泡沫问题,但由此蔓延的市场悲观情绪加重了政策的负向效果。中国应吸取此教训,夯实实体经济基础及注重引导市场资金流向等。
<<Based on SVAR model,it can be discovered that one of the causes of Japan’s bubble economy are the ineffective monetary policy transmission mechanism. As for Japanese monetary easing policies in 1980s in response to the appreciation of the Yen,Asset prices rose dramatically but investment and output didn’t increase due to the ineffectiveness of exchange rate and asset price transmission mechanism. The empirical results also show that excess funds inflowing to the capital markets at that time aimed at speculation rather than investment. Japan attempted to control the bubble economy by tightening the monetary policy,resulting in pessimism throughout the markets and a series of negative effects. China should take it as a reference,working to consolidate the foundation of real economy and encourage funds to the most productive sectors.
<<Keywords: | Monetary PolicyMonetary Policy Transmission MechanismBubble EconomyQuantitative Easing PolicySVAR |