2008年全球金融危机爆发之后,人们认识到缺乏从宏观的和逆周期的视角采取有效措施,忽视了金融风险的跨市场传播,导致金融市场和实体经济剧烈波动,成为引发金融危机的重要原因,宏观审慎监管得以受到高度的关注。由于货币政策与宏观审慎监管并非完全相互独立,政策制定者需要掌握在宏观审慎监管和货币政策下金融风险的传递机制,才能有效地进行制度安排。本文根据中国金融市场的特点设置合理的假设,构建包括家庭、企业、银行、广义政府四大部门的模型,根据已有的文献和实际数据估算校准参数,分析比较在不同的货币政策和宏观审慎监管下,金融风险传递的运行机制。结果发现,宏观审慎监管存在明显的宏观经济效应;逆周期货币政策与逆周期宏观审慎监管契合度较高;不同货币政策与宏观审慎监管之间有不同的交互效应。
<<After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008,having recognized that the important reason for the financial crisis lay on the fact that we failed to take effective measures from the macroeconomic and counter-cyclical perspective and ignored the cross-market spread of financial risks,which led a volatility to the financial markets and physical economy,the macro-prudential supervision received a high degree of attention. Since monetary policy and macro-prudential supervision are not completely independent from each other,policymakers need to master the transfer mechanism of financial risk under macro-prudential supervision and monetary policy,so as to carry out institutional arrangements effectively. Based on the characteristics of China’s financial market,this paper sets up reasonable assumptions,estimates the calibration parameters according to the existing literature and the actual data,constructs the model including the households,the enterprises,the banks and the generalized government,analyzes and compares the operating mechanism of financial risk transfer under different monetary policy and macro-prudential supervision. The results show that there is a clear macroeconomic effect on macro-prudential supervision. The counter-cyclical monetary policy is highly compatible with the macro-prudential supervision of the reverse cycle. There are different interaction effects between different monetary policy and macro-prudential supervision.
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