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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    巴西:特梅尔总统上台 形势比预期复杂

    摘要

    持续近9个月的弹劾案终于结束,罗塞夫被罢免总统职务。特梅尔正式就任总统,但其执政之路并非一帆风顺。国内执政格局处于2018年大选前分化与重组的博弈阶段,政治争斗不可避免。而现实中腐败案持续发酵的破坏力仍不可估量。经济连续第二年深度衰退仍是新政府面临的最大挑战。尽管特梅尔打出限制财政支出、降低公共债务和进行新一轮私有化的经济“组合拳”,但多数改革议案须经国会对法律做出修改,因此,能否顺利通过还存在诸多不确定性。短期内,巴西失业率和贫困率上升。鉴于需对美国特朗普政府实行的保护主义政策再评估,巴西对相应政策的调整暂处于观望状态。2017年巴西形势将比预期更加复杂。

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    Abstract

    The impeachment process having lasted for nearly 9 months ended by Dilma Rousseff being out of office. Michel Temer officially became the president of Brazil,however,his ruling may not go as smoothly as expected. Party politics has entered another round of differentiation and re-organization in the coming presidential election in 2018. And the influence derived from continuous corruption probe may be immeasurable. The second consecutive year of deep recession remains to be the biggest challenge for the new government. Although President Temer has proposed some reform measures such as limiting fiscal expenditure,reducing public debt and privatizing state-owned enterprises,most of them must be approved by Congress in the form of law amendment,thus there exist a lot of uncertainties. In the short term,unemployment rate and poverty rate have increased. Due to the need of re-evaluating the protectionist policies pursued by Trump government of the United States,the adjustment of Brazil’s corresponding policies remains to be seen. In 2017,Brazil’s situation will be more complex than expected.

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    作者简介
    张勇:张勇,经济学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所经济研究室副研究员,主要研究方向为拉美经济。
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